RED III
RED III is changing the bunker map
The impact of RED III on the Northwest European bunker market is becoming increasingly visible.
Higher compliance costs in the Netherlands are widening price differences between Rotterdam and neighbouring bunker ports, while market participants report bunker demand shifting towards Antwerp and Hamburg.
S&P Global reported earlier this month that rising RED III compliance costs are making conventional marine fuels in Rotterdam less competitive. And this week, new analysis from PortXchange again highlighted the impact of different approaches to RED III implementation across Europe.
The Netherlands introduced RED III requirements for marine fuel suppliers at the beginning of 2026. Belgium has delayed equivalent requirements, while Germany has not imposed them on bunker suppliers serving international shipping.
For shipowners and operators, those differences have very practical consequences.
The difference is visible in today’s prices
PBT’s price indications on Wednesday 23 September show VLSFO at USD 670/MT in Rotterdam, compared with USD 640/MT in Antwerp.
For a 500 MT VLSFO stem, that USD 30/MT difference represents USD 15,000 in fuel cost alone.
Of course, that does not automatically make Antwerp the better bunkering option. Deviations, port costs, timing, availability and operational requirements all need to be taken into account.
But it does illustrate how regulation is becoming another factor in deciding where to bunker.
Rotterdam bunker volumes down 25%
And this is not just a short-term price movement.
Bunker sales in the Port of Rotterdam fell by 25.1% in the first half of 2026 compared with the same period last year.
The decline was particularly strong for conventional fuels. VLSFO volumes fell by 46%, while HSFO declined by 24%.
At the same time, sales of alternative fuels increased by 28%.
The Port of Rotterdam itself points to the implementation of RED III in the Netherlands as a major reason behind the shift. Additional sustainability obligations are increasing the cost of conventional bunker fuels compared with competing ports in the region.
And the fuel choice is changing too
There is another side to the story.
While conventional bunker volumes in Rotterdam have fallen sharply, alternative fuel sales are growing. RED III and other decarbonisation measures are gradually changing the relative economics of conventional and lower-carbon fuels.
For bunker buyers, this means that simply comparing today’s VLSFO or MGO price is no longer enough.
Fuel type, location, EU ETS exposure, FuelEU Maritime compliance, regulatory requirements and the vessel’s trading pattern can all influence the total cost.
The question is therefore becoming less about:
“Where is the cheapest fuel today?”
and increasingly about:
“What is the most cost-effective bunkering strategy for this vessel and this voyage?”
Keeping a close eye on the market is a good place to start.
Want to receive PBT’s latest bunker price indications directly in your inbox? Subscribe to our fuel price updates and receive the latest price indications three times a week!